Informal Reasoning: fallacies

Please answer these 8 questions based on the pdf file reading attached Thinking, Fast and Slow Pt. 3.

  1. What are narrative fallacies and why does System 1 thinking tend to lead to them?


  1. What is the hindsight bias?


  1. In TFS, Kahneman talks at length about investing “experts” and how their success is largely due to luck, with just the illusion of skill. What are some other examples of “experts”, outside of the business world, where you see the same phenomenon?


  1. What does Paul Meehl say about expert intuitions and their reliability compared to statistical formulas?


  1. When does Kahneman think we can trust expert intuitions? (Be as specific as possible)


  1. What is the planning fallacy?


  1. How does the optimistic bias lead to overconfidence?


  1. What is Kahneman’s favored solution to overconfident optimism?

Please answer this 1 question after reading this link

  1. Provide an instance or two of the Dunning-Kruger effect that you have encountered, whether it was with someone you personally know, or an individual you have read or heard about (e.g. celebrities, scientists, etc). You may also write about individuals that exhibit impostor syndrome.


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